Behind the Metrics: Lagging vs. Leading Indicators

two charts showing growth and decline with the phrase leading indicators vs lagging indicators

Most dashboards are backward-looking. They tell us what happened—revenue last quarter, churn last month, margin last year. These are lagging metrics: outcomes of decisions already made, systems already in motion. They’re essential for accountability, but they don’t help you steer.

Leading metrics, on the other hand, are predictive. They signal what’s likely to happen next. They give leaders time to course-correct, invest, or intervene. And yet, they’re often missing from the conversation.

This imbalance creates risk. When teams manage only to lagging indicators, they’re always reacting. By the time revenue dips or churn spikes, the damage is done. The question isn’t whether to track lagging metrics—you must. The question is whether you’re also tracking the signals that shape them.

Take customer retention. It’s a classic lagging metric. But what predicts it? Time to value (TTV), onboarding completion, product usage depth, support response time. These are leading indicators. They tell you whether a customer is likely to stay—before they leave.

Or consider revenue. It’s the ultimate lagging metric. But what leads it? Sales cycle velocity, pipeline quality, demo-to-close ratio, average deal size. If those numbers are soft, revenue will be too—eventually.

Even margin has leading signals: staffing ratios, unit economics, operational efficiency, pricing power. Waiting for margin to erode before acting is like waiting for the engine light to come on before checking the oil.

The key is balance. Lagging metrics show performance. Leading metrics show momentum. One tells you where you’ve been. The other tells you where you’re headed.

So how do you build a system that tracks both?

Start by mapping outcomes to inputs. For every lagging metric you report, identify the behaviors, processes, or signals that precede it. Then measure those. Make them visible. Make them actionable.

Next, align incentives. If teams are only rewarded for outcomes, they’ll chase results at the expense of sustainability. But if they’re also measured on leading indicators—like onboarding speed, pipeline health, or product adoption—they’ll build systems that perform over time.

Finally, revisit your dashboards. Are you managing the past—or shaping the future?

Because in the end, metrics aren’t just about measurement. They’re about movement. And if you want to lead, you need to see what’s coming—not just what’s already passed.

This post is part of the Behind the Metrics series, where we unpack the numbers that drive strategic clarity and sustainable growth.

Want help identifying your leading indicators or building a predictive metric stack? Let’s talk.